Analysis projects increase in uninsured rates

A KFF analysis provides a state-by-state allocation of Congressional Budget Office estimates that 10 million people could be uninsured by 2034 following the passage of the budget reconciliation bill. KFF estimates the total could be higher, since the CBO estimates do not account for potential impacts following the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services 2025 Marketplace Integrity and Affordability final rule issued in June. Under current law, the uninsured rate could increase by 3% or more in 20 states. Under the combined effects of the bill and expiration of tax credits for Affordable Care Act Marketplace enrollees, three states could experience uninsured rate increases of at least 5%, while 34 states and Washington, D.C. could experience increases of 3% or more. (KFF News analysis, 8/20/25)